Variational Data Assimilation via Sparse Regularization

This paper studies the role of sparse regularization in a properly chosen basis for variational data assimilation (VDA) problems. Specifically, it focuses on data assimilation of noisy and down-sampled observations while the state variable of interest exhibits sparsity in the real or transformed domain. We show that in the presence of sparsity, the $\ell_{1}$-norm regularization produces more accurate and stable solutions than the classic data assimilation methods. To motivate further developments of the proposed methodology, assimilation experiments are conducted in the wavelet and spectral domain using the linear advection-diffusion equation

The influence of migrating bed forms on the velocity-intermittency structure of turbulent flow over a gravel bed.

Modeling turbulent flows at high Reynolds number requires solving simplified variants of the Navier-Stokes equations. The methods used to close the resulting Reynolds-averaged, or eddy simulation equations usually follow classical theory and, at small enough scales, postulate universal scaling for turbulence that is independent of the velocity itself. This may not be the best way to conceptualize geophysical turbulence. Turbulent intermittency may be defined in terms of the local “roughness” of the velocity signal as measured by pointwise Hölder exponents. This study investigates the joint velocity-intermittency structure of flow over a gravel-bed surface with migrating bed forms. We report clear velocity-intermittency dependence and quantify its nature above the moving bed form profile. Our results imply differences in energy transfer close to bed forms at shorter wavelengths than those forced directly. Hence, progress in modeling flows of geophysical relevance may require a reconsideration of the principles on which turbulence closures are based

From turbulence to landscapes: Logarithmic mean profiles in bounded complex systems

We show that similarly to the logarithmic mean-velocity profile in wall-bounded turbulence, the landscape topography presents an intermediate region with a logarithmic mean-elevation profile. Such profiles are present in complex topographies with channel branching and fractal river networks resulting from model simulation, controlled laboratory experiments, and natural landscapes. Dimensional and self-similarity arguments are used to corroborate this finding. We also tested the presence of logarithmic profiles in discrete, minimalist models of networks obtained from optimality principles (optimal channel networks) and directed percolation. The emergence of self-similar scaling appears as a robust outcome in dynamically different, but spatially bounded, complex systems, as a dimensional consequence of length-scale independence

Multiplex Networks: A Framework for Studying Multiprocess Multiscale Connectivity Via Coupled-Network Theory With an Application to River Deltas

Transport of water, nutrients, or energy fluxes in many natural or coupled human natural systems occurs along different pathways that often have a wide range of transport timescales and might exchange fluxes with each other dynamically. Although network approaches have been proposed for studying connectivity and transport properties on single-layer networks, theories considering interacting networks are lacking. We present a general framework for transport on multiscale coupled-connectivity systems, via multilayer networks which conceptualize the system as a set of interacting networks, each arranged in a separate layer, and with interactions across layers acknowledged by interlayer links. We illustrate this framework by examining transport in river deltas as a dynamic interaction of flow within river channels and overland flow on the islands, when controlled by the flooding level. We show the potential of the framework to answer quantitative questions related to the characteristic timescale of response in the system

Scale-dependent erosional patterns in steady-state and transient-state landscapes

Landscape topography is the expression of the dynamic equilibrium between external forcings (for example, climate and tectonics) and the underlying lithology. The magnitude and spatial arrangement of erosional and depositional fluxes dictate the evolution of landforms during both statistical steady state (SS) and transient state (TS) of major landscape reorganization. For SS landscapes, the common expectation is that any point of the landscape has an equal chance to erode below or above the landscape median erosion rate. We show that this is not the case. Afforded by a unique experimental landscape that provided a detailed space-time recording of erosional fluxes and by defining the so-called E50-area curve, we reveal for the first time that there exists a hierarchical pattern of erosion. Specifically, hillslopes and fluvial channels erode more rapidly than the landscape median erosion rate, whereas intervening parts of the landscape in terms of upstream contributing areas (colluvial regime) erode more slowly. We explain this apparent paradox by documenting the dynamic nature of SS landscapes—landscape locations may transition from being a hillslope to being a valley and then to being a fluvial channel due to ridge migration, channel piracy, and small-scale landscape dynamics through time. Under TS conditions caused by increased precipitation, we show that the E50-area curve drastically changes shape during landscape reorganization. Scale-dependent erosional patterns, as observed in this study, suggest benchmarks in evaluating numerical models and interpreting the variability of sampled erosional rates in field landscapes

Downscaling Satellite Precipitation with Emphasis on Extremes: A Variational 1-Norm Regularization in the Derivative Domain

The increasing availability of precipitation observations from space, e.g., from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the forthcoming Global Precipitation Measuring (GPM) Mission, has fueled renewed interest in developing frameworks for downscaling and multi-sensor data fusion that can handle large data sets in computationally efficient ways while optimally reproducing desired properties of the underlying rainfall fields. Of special interest is the reproduction of extreme precipitation intensities and gradients, as these are directly relevant to hazard prediction. In this paper, we present a new formalism for downscaling satellite precipitation observations, which explicitly allows for the preservation of some key geometrical and statistical properties of spatial precipitation. These include sharp intensity gradients (due to high-intensity regions embedded within lower-intensity areas), coherent spatial structures (due to regions of slowly varying rainfall),and thicker-than-Gaussian tails of precipitation gradients and intensities. Specifically, we pose the downscaling problem as a discrete inverse problem and solve it via a regularized variational approach (variational downscaling) where the regularization term is selected to impose the desired smoothness in the solution while allowing for some steep gradients(called 1-norm or total variation regularization). We demonstrate the duality between this geometrically inspired solution and its Bayesian statistical interpretation, which is equivalent to assuming a Laplace prior distribution for the precipitation intensities in the derivative (wavelet) space. When the observation operator is not known, we discuss the effect of its misspecification and explore a previously proposed dictionary-based sparse inverse downscaling methodology to indirectly learn the observation operator from a database of coincidental high- and low-resolution observations. The proposed method and ideas are illustrated in case studies featuring the downscaling of a hurricane precipitation field

Advancing the remote sensing of precipitation

Satellite-based global precipitation data has addressed the limitations of rain gauges and weather radar systems in forecasting applications and for weather and climate studies. Inspite of this ability, a number of issues that require the development of advanced concepts to address key challenges in satellite-based observations of precipitation were identified during the Advanced Concepts Workshop on Remote Sensing of Precipitation at Multiple Scales at the University of California. These include quantification of uncertainties of individual sensors and their propagation into multisensor products warrants a great deal of research. The development of metrics for validation and uncertainty analysis are of great importance. Bias removal, particularly probability distribution function (PDF)-based adjustment, deserves more in-depth research. Development of a near-real-time probabilistic uncertainty model for satellitebased precipitation estimates is highly desirable

Probabilistic Evaluation of Drought in CMIP6 Simulations

As droughts have widespread social and ecological impacts, it is critical to develop long-term adaptation and mitigation strategies to reduce drought vulnerability. Climate models are important in quantifying drought changes. Here, we assess the ability of 285 CMIP6 historical simulations, from 17 models, to reproduce drought duration and severity in three observational data sets using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). We used summary statistics beyond the mean and standard deviation, and devised a novel probabilistic framework, based on the Hellinger distance, to quantify the difference between observed and simulated drought characteristics. Results show that many simulations have less than error in reproducing the observed drought summary statistics. The hypothesis that simulations and observations are described by the same distribution cannot be rejected for more than of the grids based on our distance framework. No single model stood out as demonstrating consistently better performance over large regions of the globe. The variance in drought statistics among the simulations is higher in the tropics compared to other latitudinal zones. Though the models capture the characteristics of dry spells well, there is considerable bias in low precipitation values. Good model performance in terms of SPI does not imply good performance in simulating low precipitation. Our study emphasizes the need to probabilistically evaluate climate model simulations in order to both pinpoint model weaknesses and identify a subset of best-performing models that are useful for impact assessments

A combined nonlinear and nonlocal model for topographic evolution in channelized depositional systems

Models for the overall topographic evolution of erosional and depositional systems can be grouped into two broad classes. The first class is local models in which the sediment flux at a point is expressed as a linear or nonlinear function of local hydrogeomorphic measures (e.g., water discharge and slope). The second class is nonlocal models, where the sediment flux at a point is expressed via a weighted average (i.e., convolution integral) of measures upstream and/or downstream of the point of interest. Until now, the nonlinear and nonlocal models have been developed independently. In this study, we develop a unified model for large-scale morphological evolution that combines both nonlinear and nonlocal approaches. With this model, we show that in a depositional system, under piston-style subsidence, the topographic signatures of nonlinearity and nonlocality are identical and that in combination, their influence is additive. Furthermore, unlike either nonlinear or nonlocal models alone, the combined model fits observed fluvial profiles with parameter values that are consistent with theory and independent observations. By contrast, under conditions of steady bypass, the nonlocal and nonlinear components in the combined model have distinctly different signatures. In the absence of nonlocality, a purely nonlinear model always predicts a bypass fluvial profile with a spatially constant slope, while a nonlocal model produces a nonconstant slope, i.e., profile curvature. This result can be used as a test for inferring the presence of nonlocality and for untangling the relative roles of local and nonlocal mechanisms in shaping depositional morphology

Toward a Unified Science of the Earth\u27s Surface: Opportunities for Synthesis Among Hydrology, Geomorphology, Geochemistry, and Ecology

The Earth\u27s surface is shaped by the interaction of tectonics, water, sediment, solutes, and biota over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales and across diverse environments. Development of a predictive science of Earth surface dynamics integrates many disciplines and approaches, including hydrology, geomorphology, ocean and atmospheric science, sedimentary and structural geology, geochemistry, and ecology. This paper discusses challenges, opportunities, and a few example problems that can serve as pathways toward this integration